			Foreign Correspondent

		      Inside Track On World News
	    By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster
		 Eric Margolis <emargolis@lglobal.com>

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The Road To Damascus
Eric Margolis
Dec 18/95

Israel and Syria, locked in combat like two desert
scorpions, are currently involved in a series of intricate
negotiations that may soon lead to an end of their half-
century of bitter rivalry and fighting.   

This week, in a speech to the US Congress, Israeli Prime
Minister Shimon Peres, the architect of the peace pact with
the PLO, made an eloquent appeal to Syria. `We are all sons
and daughters of Abraham,' said Peres, in the clearest
asserion ever by an Israeli leader that Arabs and Jews are
cousins.  His words were aimed as much at  American Jews,
many of whom oppose any concessions to the  Arabs, as Syria. 
 
Peres next exploded a bombshell by hinting that Israel might
be prepared to swiftly vacate the portion of southern Lebanon
it has occupied. Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, and return
of the Golan Heights to Syria, are Damascus' two principal
demands.  

Hafez Asad, Syria's wily, very tough leader, will find 
Peres' peace offensive increasingly hard to resist. Syria,
with its satrapy, Lebanon, is the only Arab neighbor that
has not so far made peace with Israel.  The Soviet Union's
collapse left Syria isolated, impoverished, and unable to
acquire sufficient modern arms or spare parts to maintain
its military confrontation with Israel.

So far, the crux of Syrian-Israel rivalry has appeared to be
the strategic Golan Heights.  From their top, Israeli guns
can shell Damascus;  Syrian guns can hit much of northern
Galilee.  Israeli electronic warfare systems on the Heights
peer deeply into Syria.  

Even so, the military utility of the Heights today is much
less than in the past. During the 1973 War, for example,
Syrian armored columns  broke through Israeli defenses on
Golan, but  then halted before reaching the edge of the
escarpment.  The Syrian command feared advancing too close
to Israel would provoke an Israeli riposte with nuclear
weapons - which were, in fact, being deployed for action
against Syrian and Egyptian forces.  

Golan, and southern Lebanon, are tactical issues.  Israel
would be well rid of its self-proclaimed `Security Zone' in
southern Lebanon. This, the last vestige of Israel's ill-
fated attempt to turn Lebanon into a protectorate,
became an `insecurity zone.' Ironically, Israel's occupation
of Lebanon created and fuelled the ferocious Hizbullah
guerrillas, who have become its most deadly and successful
enemy.

Far more important than these tactical concerns is the 
strategic struggle between Israel and Syria.  Israel has
long seen itself as regional superpower - which it certainly
is - whose sphere of influence includes Palestinians, 
Jordan and Lebanon.  Syria is the only Arab state now
capable of offering serious military resistance to Israeli
regional ambitions.  Egypt, the other Arab power, is so
dependent on US aid that its political and military
capabilities have been negated.

Syria views itself as rightful master of the entire Levant. 
Syria's historic claims to the region pre-date those of
Israel, and have continued almost to the present day.  
Damascus, to Syrians, is the center of the Arab World, and
legitimate  ruler of all Palestine and Jordan. Syria has
never accepted the independence of Lebanon,  which was
detached from Syria by France, in the 1920's.

Israel and Syria have fought since 1980 for control of
Lebanon and sparred over Jordan. Syria's President Asad
eventually defeated the Israelis in Lebanon, in spite of
their powerful backing by Washington. Lebanon was a
remarkably dirty war in which both sides resorted to terror,
assassination, and scorched earth. In the end, Asad's
diplomatic skills, ruthlessness and iron nerves prevailed. 

Asad still is trying to wrest leadership of the Palestinians
from Yasser Arafat, and hand it to tame, pro-Syrian
Palestinians in Damascus.  He is warily  watching bitter
foe, Saddam Hussein, and, of course, the Clinton
Administration, whose Mideast policy, in Syria's view, is
entirely shaped by Israel's American supporters.

President Asad hesitates to make peace because the major
disputes between Israel and the PLO remain unresolved:
Jerusalem, final borders of the Palestinian `entity;' its
future statehood; return of Arab refugees; Jewish
settlements; and water rights. A peace deal between Israel
and Syria prior to resolution of the above issues will leave
the Palestinians isolated and in a position of maximum
weakness.  And things could still go terribly wrong between
Israel and the Palestinians. Ever-cautious Asad wants more
assurances before he moves. 
 
Influential elements within Israel's powerful military-
industrial-security complex strongly oppose peace with
Syria. Some ultras urge Israel deliver a smashing military
blow to fragment fragile Syria into Druze, Alawite and Sunni
mini-states.  This, reckons Israel's right, will produce a  
Levant in which Israel rules the roost.  Senior officers of
Syria's military and security apparatus also oppose a peace,
fearing loss of influence and perks.

Nevertheless, Shimon Peres is pressing relentlessly ahead. 
Wrongly branded in the past as weak and indecisive, Peres
has revealed himself to be the most courageous and forward-
thinking of Israel's modern leaders, including the late
Yitzhak Rabin.  Equally important, Peres  is fast gaining
the trust of Palestinians and Israel's Arab neighbors. He is
a leader with whom Hafez Asad can deal, both intellectually
and emotionally. 

The question now: which of these two old foes will drop his
guard the first?  

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